[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W
15 KT. THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICTS THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 57W-64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 22N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THE SSMI/AMSRE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AGAIN CLEARLY DEPICTS THE WAVE THAT EXTENDS S TO THE E PACIFIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 78W-82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 3N30W 2N40W 4N50W TO FRENCH
GUIANA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W...AND
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W. FURTHER W... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N100W PRODUCING NORTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO MOVE SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB
LOW IS ALSO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WIND
DIRECTION BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO COSTA RICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N27W TO 32N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 28N71W...24N55W...AND
30N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE UPPER LOW AT 28N71W IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N15W WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 10N40W. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 65W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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