[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N53W TO 3N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 215 NM E AND 100 NM W
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N17W 4N29W 1N43W 1N52W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA
LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-5W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-27W
AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
28N87W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NW
GULF. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
DOMINATING THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N80W TO
NEAR 11N81W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN
70W-77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 68W-78W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE N OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 29N72W ROTATING AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 28N65W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR
20N73W WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF THE S TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N39W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

$$
WALLACE




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