[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 12N51W TO 3N54W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM SEEN IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 10N ALONG 89W MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
FURTHER DISCUSSION OF THIS WAVE WILL NOW BE INCLUDED IN THE TWDEP.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 6N20W 4N30W 2N41W 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N88W DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO
BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KT MOVE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WHILE INCREASING IN THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS PREVAIL. THE FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE N COAST OF COLUMBIA IS FROM 15N74W
TO 9N77W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-77W INCLUDING HAITI AND FAR E CUBA AS WELL AS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...SEE ABOVE
AND THE TWDEP. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N67W TO 26N73W.
THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINKED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE
SE BAHAMAS AND AN AREA FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 63W-73W. THE REMAINEDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO A 1026
MB HIGH NEAR 28N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LINKED TO AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 12N26W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
20N-32N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN TROPICAL
ATLC...SEE ABOVE.

$$
WALTON







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