[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N42W 6N45W 2N46W AT
10/0600 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS
WAVE WAS JUMPED FORWARD TO THE WEST IN ORDER FOR IT TO AGREE
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE INFORMATION...WITH FORECAST MODEL
INFORMATION...AND WITH CIMSS MIMIC-TPW DATA. THE METEOSAT-9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM AS LATE AS 09/1700 UTC DID NOT
SHOW STRONG EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 35W...WHERE THE
WAVE HAD BEEN ANALYZED TO BE AT 09/1800 UTC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE BIG
MASS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W AT 09/1700 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W...JUST TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N AT 10/0000 UTC...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 7N20W 5N30W 5N38W 4N48W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
16W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N
TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF 76W...TO
WESTERN CUBA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO 17N79W TO 19N75W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC IS 1.65 INCHES AND THE TOTAL FOR BERMUDA
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS 1.15 INCHES IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EVENTUALLY
THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SIDE NEAR 3N80W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS ON TOP OF BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 68W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 64W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N76W-TO-WEST CENTRAL
HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 31N40W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N44W TO 16N50W TO 9N51W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH 32N48W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N18W TO 21N20W TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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