[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 10N ALONG 34W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CURVATURE OR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
CONTINUITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 20N ALONG 74W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILAR TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE...THERE IS
NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM AVAILABLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N21W 6N32W 4N43W AND INTO
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM S OF 7N BETWEEN 37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NW-N FLOW AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
THE NW PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING SE
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OFF THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS NE FROM SE FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W TO 32N79W TO A SURFACE LOW OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 33N78W. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N65W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N27W. ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 23N48W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N E OF 46W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
NEAR 10N23W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
20N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

$$
WALTON/SANDOVAL





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