[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 08/1200 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS TILTING FROM 14N25W TO 3N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK
PRODUCT SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THIS
WAVE. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS FROM DAKAR INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
MOVED W PAST 17.5W OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE UPON THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N ALONG 67W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THIS
WAVE. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N26W 6N30W 3N42W AND
INTO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 5W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
35W-40W AND S OF 5N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING INTO
THE NW PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CRESTING THE
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E TO
SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THOUGH
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES AND
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA
TO NICARAGUA CONTINUING NE TO ERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND WRN
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 12N77W TO 14N80W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN S AMERICA IS SUPPORTING E
TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 21N
W OF 72W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 46W-53W...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N57W TO
21N63W.  ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED ON A 1023
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N55W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N33W.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 15N E OF
50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 9N25W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON/COHEN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net