[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 52W IS NOW COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE...THUS DROPPED
FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
LEAVING LOW CLOUDS CLEARLY VISIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE
AXIS INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 6N24W 2N40W INLAND OVER
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ITCZ IS VERY ACTIVE BUT NOT WITH ANYTHING
SEVERE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-21W...S OF 2N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-42W...AND FROM 1N-4N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER
NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF FROM AN UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE WITH THE BASE DIPPING S
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ALONG THE COAST
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE
THEN ALONG 29N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA
TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 81W-83.5W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL US IS
PROVIDING DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175
NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR GULF OF GUACANAYABO TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-82W WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS AND THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO SURFACE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THIS AREA COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING N OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF 78W N OF 27N
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY.
A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N55W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 20N61W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
55W-59W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W AND A
1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N35W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE
ATLC WATERS E OF 70W EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net