[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF 5N AT
07/0000 UTC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS
WAVE IS MOVING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N59W 13N61W INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 6N62W AT 07/0000 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W.
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W...
FROM THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE TO JUST TO THE EAST OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE SEPARATED FROM THE WAVE
ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TROUGH IS ALONG 24N53W 20N58W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N12W TO 7N20W 4N30W 2N40W TO 2N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W/51W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 920W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A 1012 MB SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO FLORIDA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO
TAMPA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W...
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA ALONG 90W. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING FROM NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT CONTINUE FROM WESTERN
CUBA AND THE WATERS JUST OFF WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC FLOW IS REACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS THANKS TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 80W TO HONDURAS...IN AN AREA
OF SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES FROM 24N72W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
DEFINITELY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE EVERYWHERE
IN THE AREA AROUND THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N55W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 50W
AND 70W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN
51W AND 57W.

$$
MT




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