[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
REMAINING EMBEDDED MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER NE BRAZIL S OF THE
EQUATOR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED OFF AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 20N55W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 390 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6-10N AND
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 60
NM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N22W 1N40W 2N50W AND
INLAND ACROSS NE BRAZIL AND THE ERN GUYANAS REGION NEAR 3N57W.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 10W-13W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH TAMPA BAY AND INTO THE ERN
GULF ALONG 27N83W 25N85W 21N90W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FL AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 75W. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS SW OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE FL/GA
BORDER. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSES FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...THROUGH THE WRN GULF TO NEAR 20N97W...AND ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N82W AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EAST TO 11N80W 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CAN BE FOUND OVER THIS REGION...WEDGED BETWEEN THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH HONDURAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FOUND WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N OF
THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...REACHING 70W BY MON MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AN AXIS ALONG 69W
IS BOOKENEDED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER SE GEORGIA AND AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 25N56W. MOIST SW TO SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE W
ATLC W OF 69W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS LIFTING THIS MOISTURE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FL AND
EASTWARD TO NEAR 75W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A
SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31N51W. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...TROPICAL WAVES...AND
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N55W TO 25N50W...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 69W.

$$
HUFFMAN/SCHAUER CLARK




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