[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
REMAINING EMBEDDED MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N
BETWEEN 42W-51W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED OFF AS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 25N56W TO 20N59W. A SECOND SOURCE OF LOWER
LEVEL ENERGY LAGS BEHIND...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
24N49W TO 20N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF 10N BETWEEN 49W-61W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGHS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N21W 2N29W 1N45W AND
INLAND ACROSS NE BRAZIL AND THE ERN GUYANAS REGION NEAR 3N52W.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-22W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDS A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE SRN BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ERN GULF ALONG 28N83W 26N86W 22N90W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
E GULF AND NRN FLORIDA N OF 25N E OF 84W. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER INTO THE
WRN GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOIST
SWLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND
IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN
TURN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 82W-86W EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ANOTHER AREA IMPACTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N80W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N80W
INTO THE LOW. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY TRADE WINDS AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES ALOFT...MOIST SW TO SLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE W
ATLC W OF 69W. THIS UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND AREAS IN THE W ATLC
N OF 24N AND W OF 69W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED ON A PAIR OF 1027 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 33N35W AND 31N49W WHERE FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 69W. HOWEVER...A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 58W AND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N
BETWEEN 47W-58W. THESE SHOWERS ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N57W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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