[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N AT
06/0000 UTC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IT IS
QUITE DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE AS NEITHER
THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF SHOWS THE WAVE. THE ONLY HINT THAT THE
WAVE STILL IS VIABLE IS A SLIGHT MAXIMA IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY NEAR THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N51W 12N55W TO 6N56W AT 06/0000 UTC.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 18N54.5W.
O 6N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED FROM ALL
AVAILABLE TOOLS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISTINCT MAXIMA WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS 21N. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE LARGEST AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE IS NEAR 700 MB WITH THE
WAVE AXIS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE AXIS. VISIBLE
AND NEAR-VISIBLE IR IMAGERY AND THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE
WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH ONE LOW-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR 19N AND
THE OTHER NEAR 8N.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 12N15W TO 8N20W 4N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4S TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF 91W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
TO THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST ALONG 83W...TO 25N87W AND
22N92W. A THIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREAS FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE AREAS FROM
GRAND CAYMAN TO CUBA WEST OF 79W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N79W 27N72W BEYOND 32N72W...AND IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 30N86W TO
25N86W TO 23N82W ALONG THE CUBA COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CYCLONIC FLOW IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
THANKS TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING
THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA TO THE AREA NEAR
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR...IN THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE ITCZ AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 12.5N83W IN COASTAL NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREAS FROM THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE AREAS FROM GRAND CAYMAN TO CUBA WEST
OF 79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 72W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N58W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
24N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

$$
MT





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