[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT.
THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT EXHIBITS A VERY WEAK
INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE SOUTH OF A MIDDLE LEVEL DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THIS
IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE AS SEEN ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS PANAMA AND NRN COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 78-84W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 1N40W TO NE BRAZIL
NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM SE LOUISIANA
AT 30N89W TO 25N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N85W TO 27N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA FROM
N OF 28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
E GULF AND FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
GULF E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT...
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
70W-75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 88W-91W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N CARIBBEAN N OF
17N...AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF 10N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING NW. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N43W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 9N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 10W-60W ALONG 9N.
EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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