[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. AN
EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS AND METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
WAVE WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND AND CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
THAT REACHES TO NEAR 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS LITTLE SIGNATURE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A NWD
BULGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N21W 2N36W 2N40W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 12W-33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF N OF 22N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN GULF. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 82W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS IN A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTED BY STRONG SW TO W FLOW ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA
KEYS. SE AND S WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
GULF BASED ON A 1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
N/CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 68W AND TROUGHING
E OF 68W. STRONG W-SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS N OF 17N...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF WRN CUBA...WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS
DIFFLUENT. THIS DIFFLUENT ZONE STRETCHES FARTHER TO THE E-SE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
ELY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
N OF 17N E OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN AN OVERALL CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PROMOTING
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AND QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NOTE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 28N W OF
68W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SELY SURFACE WINDS. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...GENERATED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 57W-67W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH A STRETCHED
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N44W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N33W TO 27N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FEATURE. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A PAIR OF 1023
MB HIGHS ARE LOCATED NEAR 28N55W AND 29N45W. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
27N28W. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP
LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM NE OF THE AZORES. OTHERWISE DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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