[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION 30 METER LEVEL
STREAMLINES INDICATED SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE AS WELL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 33W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS
ALSO APPARENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N74W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 1N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-11W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-27W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN
31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N
AND E OF 89W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SE WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE.
FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-93W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...AND OVER INLAND
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 66W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA
...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE
SRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N66W.
ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N52W. A 1018 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N35W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-35W. IN THE
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N30W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 10W-60W ALONG 8N. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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