[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME TURNING IN THE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION 30 METER
LEVEL STREAMLINES INDICATED SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AXIS OF THE WAVE AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND PERSISTS WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30-36W...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SLIGHT CYCLONIC
LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE WINDS BETWEEN BUOYS 42058
AND 42059.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 4N32W 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 4N
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
30W-43W...AND S OF 3N W OF 46W. THE AREA OF SCATTERED TSTM FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W IS MOVING WWD 10-15 KT AND COULD HAMPER
SEARCH EFFORTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CRASH OF AIR FRANCE FLIGHT
447 NEAR THE ARCHIPELAGO OF SAINT PETER AND PAUL...4N29W TONIGHT
AND WED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N89W TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG SW/W DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 95W/96W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 90W-92W. THE MOST
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF THE TROUGH IN AN AREA FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 91W-94W...AND ALSO ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND
BECOME DIFFUSE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE
ERN HALF. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TSTM OVER GUATEMALA... BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH
AMERICA. A 1038 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30+
KT WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W.
WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF
HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE
QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 23N TO 28N W OF 65W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD THE ASSOCIATED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WELL TO THE NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 28N55W THROUGH 32N48W. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER
RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
26N48W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM N OF THE
AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO ITS SW
NEAR 30N39W SLIDING SWD. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A PRONOUNCED NE-SW ELONGATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW
AND BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN
20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W.

$$
COBB






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