[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF
THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 10N30W 11N45W 10N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 22W-30W...
AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF E
TEXAS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AT 27N105W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF 28N...AND FLORIDA.
EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
82W-86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID
OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N...AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 79W-80W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N54W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N58W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NEAR 29N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 32N9W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N44W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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