[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR
AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN
MEXICO BECOMING MORE BROAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N35W 10N40W 11N64W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
24W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 89W-91W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AT 27N106W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF 28N...AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE
TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N81W.
UPPER LEVEL E FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W
ATLANTIC FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W PRODUCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N56W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
31N12W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 17N40W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA.

$$
FORMOSA



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