[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S
OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS. AN UNRELATED 1011 MB LOW HAPPENS TO BE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N28W IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ALSO...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF JAMAICA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 16N23W 11N35W 11N51W INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 19W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE S GULF...FLORIDA...
AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE NE COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...FLORIDA...CUBA
...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
E GULF E OF 90W...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
INLAND HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W. SEE ABOVE.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF
CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
TROPICAL WAVES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W
ATLANTIC FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N56W PRODUCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FURTHER E BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
30N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 29N12W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA.

$$
FORMOSA




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