[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 18W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. AN
UNRELATED 1010 MB LOW HAPPENS TO BE W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
ALSO...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
66W-70W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 12N21W 10N30W 11N44W
9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 26W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 34W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WHILE
5-10 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE S GULF...FLORIDA...
AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 89W-95W MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N96W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 90W. A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E
GULF E OF 90W...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE S
COAST OF CUBA W OF 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NW COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-78W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. SEE ABOVE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS
VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W FROM
11N-20N. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W
ATLANTIC FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N54W PRODUCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E N OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N57W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 22N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N12W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO
15N40W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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