[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NO PRECIPITATION REALLY IS DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE ITCZ WITHIN 200 NM TO 400 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE GOES
FROM 21N51W 14N62W TO 5N63W IN SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING
WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REALLY IS
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS ALSO ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST
ABOUT 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
FROM AWAY FROM CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N91W NOW.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N30W 11N40W TO 8N50W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 6N TO 10N...AND FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE ENTIRE STATE OF FLORIDA TO THE CUBA COAST
NEAR 23N82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE WEST
OF 72W ALSO ARE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND GETTING SOME SHOWERS.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS FLORIDA...AND MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...
PASSING THROUGH LOUISIANA TO TO EAST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS IN MEXICO FROM 25N101W TO 18N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ALSO ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA TO THE
WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...AROUND A 13N78W ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
AMERICA SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ALONG 91W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W FROM 30N TO THE NORTHERN CUBA
COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
27N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE FLORIDA TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 23N55W TO 16N58W TO 13N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

$$
MT





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