[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 10N34W
TO 3N35W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BASED ON THE CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT. UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE LIKELY
PASSED DAKAR SENEGAL PRIOR TO 19/1200 UTC. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N48W TO 16N50W
TO 10N52W TO 3N53W IN SOUTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. THIS WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY ABUNDANT DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL
SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS INHIBITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 46W AND 56W...ENCOMPASSING FRENCH GUIANA...EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SURINAME.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N64W...MOVING
WEST ABOUT 20 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT DISAPPEARS WITH TIME NEAR
13N64W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAT POSSIBLY IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS IN VENEZUELA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM CUBA
SOUTHWARD...CROSSING PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
IT IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN POPPING UP TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 16N17W TO 15N20W TO 11N30W TO 6N40W TO 4N52W
INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF THE FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
21W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W...
ENCOMPASSING FRENCH GUIANA...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA INTO
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N87W
TO 23N90W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST
OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 25N85W 24N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM SAINT VINCENT TO DOMINICA HAS
BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. ONE TROPICAL WAVE GOES
FROM 21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N64W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N64W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
81W/82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N73W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE 27N73W CENTER. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE
VICINITY...IN THE SAME VICINITY AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF A TROUGH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 30N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N58W 17N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND
61W.

$$
MT





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