[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO NEARBY PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CLUSTERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 24N68W...TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 15N73W INTO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA NEAR
9N73W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 32N51W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
28N52W TO 24N55W TO 19N59W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...AND
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. OTHER RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO 7N33W TO 10N50W TO 9N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W...AND
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH SIX HOURS OR MORE EARLIER HAS
DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N98W
22N90W 27N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND BEYOND EAST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
BARBADOS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA AND BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY DISSIPATED
PRECIPITATION...AND CURRENT LINGERING SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM PANAMA TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM 2N78W TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...THE ITCZ...AND AN ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS ABACO CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N77W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE OFF THE CUBA COAST BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS ABACO CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N77W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST MOSTLY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE ABACO
ISLANDS CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 29N57W 17N59W TROUGH. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N77W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N59W TO BARBADOS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N26W TO 20N29W...
NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 28N77W BEYOND BERMUDA.

$$
MT



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