[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
TO 37W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
IT WAS MOVED BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO NEARBY
PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND
52W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
44W AND 56W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS RIGHT ON TOP OF IT 24 HOURS AGO. THE
WAVE NOW IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO
THE EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N
TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN WESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 22N56W TO 16N63W. WHETHER OR NOT THESE TWO FEATURES
ARE PART OF THE SAME SYSTEM IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT CLEAR.
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 60W...MOST PROBABLY NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THE 28N53W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 22N56W TO 16N63W TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N19W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
20N26W...WITH NO PRECIPITATION. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE 24N82W 31N66W BEYOND 34N53W.

$$
MT





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