[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR
THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 91W/92W...CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GOING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...
AND INLAND IN MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N15W TO 6N30W TO 7N50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF 30W...
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 8N TO 13N
BETWEEN 39W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N86W TO 28N86W TO 26N90W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA APPROACHING MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM WESTERN HONDURAS INTO BELIZE AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W IN THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N
TO THE WEST OF 50W...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN
HONDURAS INTO BELIZE AND THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF GUATEMALA.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A 19N95W
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND 85W. A SEPARATE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE ISLANDS TO THE
EAST OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 24N53W 20N59W 18N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 15 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 25N53W 22N59W 18N63W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 31N21W TO 23N27W TO 16N33W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT



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