[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND
36W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF PRE-EXISTING EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 7N23W TO 11N37W...INTO NORTHER GUYANA
AND EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N58W AND 7N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W
AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 10N40W 9N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N50W
AND 9N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
ON TOP OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 21N64W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...17N73W 16N80W 13N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W COVERING JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AND FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W COVERING COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND SOME OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W/77W
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MUST BE ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE AREA
THAT ALREADY IS EXPERIENCING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO 24N64W TO 21N70W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 28N34W AND 25N41W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W
AND 58W.

$$
MT





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