[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N33W TO 3N35W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD BAND IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V CLOUD BAND IS OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION STALLS OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 25 KT. THIS
WAVE IS PRIMARILY IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN...SEE THE TWDEP FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N23W 11N35W 8N48W AND
INTO S AMERICA NEAR 8N62W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE AFRICA
COAST FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 53W-66W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND
VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER N/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES
ANCHORED BY A SURFACE LOW OVER NE GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 91W
CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. BESIDES THE NE GULF...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SLY WIND OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL WITH WIND REACHING 20 KT IN THE
FAR NW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE SW GULF SUPPORTING THE
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER N FLORIDA
AND THE NE GULF TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER N OF 18N W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N81W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N98W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 79W-87W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N67W...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N81W..AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH AXIS ALONG 62W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW ATLC N OF 29N
W OF 73 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NE UNITED STATES. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N58W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
EXCEPT FOR A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS LONG A LINE FROM 21N70W TO
26N60W. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N41W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N48W.
NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N35W TO 32N25W
CONTINUING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 26N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N.

$$
WALTON






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