[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD BAND IS NOTED AND THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 27W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD BAND IS NOTED AND
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
MOISTURE PLUME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER E HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING W AT 25 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
82W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 11N30W 8N50W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 19W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA
AND S MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 88W-94W DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
28N WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
29N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE QUICKLY W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N58W. A 1016 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N40W 21N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER
E ALONG 32N27W 24N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
OF THIS TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N24W. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA



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