[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N. THE WAVE POSITION WAS NOT CHANGED AT 06/0600 UTC BECAUSE
OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. I AM NOT SURE ABOUT THE LEVEL OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
I MUST NOT MOVE THE WAVE ANY MORE TO THE WEST IF I AM GOING
TO TRY TO FOLLOW THE WAVE BASED ON THAT CYCLONIC FLOW AT WHO
KNOWS EXACTLY WHICH LEVEL. ANY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE CLOSE
TO THIS WAVE IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A PRE-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W
AND 71W...FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PUERTO RICO AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ARE ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA POSSIBLY ARE BEING HELPED BY
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N40W...INTO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 6N20W 5N25W...
AND 10N26W 10N33W 9N40W 7N50W 8N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE EXUMA SOUND IN THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N99W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST...TO A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N106W IN INTERIOR
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 76W
FROM ANDROS ISLAND NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A MASS OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA HEADING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND A SMALL PART OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 30N63W TO 25N66W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W...FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...
ARE ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
CYCLONIC FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE IS ADDING SOME ENERGY AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND AND STARTED
IN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OFF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA POSSIBLY ARE BEING HELPED BY THE 85W TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THAT AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N31W TO 30N31W
TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N40W TO 23N44W. THE
TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N29W TO 26N33W TO 20N37W TO 10N55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
48W.

$$
MT





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