[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND AN INVERTED-V LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 24W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGHER VALUES ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT FEEDING NWD INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN
60W-73W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
MAXIMUM IN TPW VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-17N W OF 80W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N25W 11N29W 8N46W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 15W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COVERING THE GULF N OF 26N. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-91W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE CIRCULATING AROUND A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO THE ERN MEXICO COAST...ANCHORED ON A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. ALSO OF NOTE...MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS IN THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION E OF 74W ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N66W CONTINUES TO DRAW
MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 81W IS CONTINUING TO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THEREFORE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF
80W...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS WRN
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND ERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N59W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
AND SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE OVER THE W ATLC...
ONE CENTERED NEAR 25N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 77W-82W...AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR
25N66W DRAWING MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
61W-68W. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 33N33W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH SW INTO A 1016 MB
LOW NEAR 26N41W. A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND FURTHER
SUPPORTS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE TWO
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTING THEM.

$$
HUFFMAN




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