[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N37W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 17N62W TO 10N65W
TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

AT THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N23W TO 7N35W TO 4N45W...
INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA TO 5N57W ALONG THE BORDER OF
SURINAME AND GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA/
SURINAME/GUYANA/VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 85W...TO SOUTHERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N90W 28N82W 30N74W TO 32N66W.
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF INTERIOR MEXICO
NEAR 25N103W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO NORTH 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 72W AND THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH
LINGERING BUT WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE FROM PANAMA TO 13N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE 18N80W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 20N42W TO 8N53W.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N TO EAST OF 55W.
THE DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.

$$
MT





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