[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE S OF
10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONTINUES ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF DUST AND A MIDDLE LAYER SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE W.
WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. WHILE
THIS WAVE IS PRIMARILY IN THE E PACIFIC...IT IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-99W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N11W 9N18W 7N27W 5N43W AND
INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED
STATES AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL/NE GULF FROM N OF 27N E OF 92W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 82W N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS FROM 20N89W
TO 25N85W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
96W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB
SURFACE HIGH 28N94W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS UP TO 15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N78W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NRN
COLUMBIA WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
10N BETWEEN 76W-80W. MOIST SLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-76W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELY TRADE
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W
ATLC NEAR 28N70W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN
/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 47W-79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 47W. ON THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N36W AND A 1023
MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N20W. A BROAD AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E
OF 53W.

$$
WALTON




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