[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N15W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
22W...TO 2S30W 2S37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 18W. A FEW CELLS OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONLY PRETTY MUCH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REMAINS AFTER THE EXIT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT NOW. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N77W TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N81W TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N87W TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.
COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL
SECTIONS WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 10N82W 17N71W
BEYOND 19N60W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SQUEEZED
IN BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO
NOW PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO JAMAICA...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS.
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
68W/69W FROM 12N TO 18N. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.
1.54 INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN CURACAO ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MORE
WESTWARD-MOVING LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 60W. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N65W...ACROSS THE CAICOS
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH
OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 69W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 FT TO 16 FT. THE AREA OF DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W REMAINS
STILL...BECOMING MORE AND MORE INDISTINCT WITH TIME. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 30W AND 75W OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N42W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO THE
25N42W CENTER TO 16N43W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N19W TO 18N33W TO 8N41W. LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND TROUGH...A 979 MB STORM CENTER...THAT IS FORECAST
TO REACH PORTUGAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LAST DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE TO AFFECT FRANCE AND SPAIN CAUSED DEATH AND DESTRUCTION
EXACTLY ONE WEEK AGO LAST WEEKEND.

$$
MT





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