[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 18W TO
2S23W 2S38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN
15W-29W AND ALSO BETWEEN 31W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. IT
EXTENDS RIDGING EWD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH 15-20
KT NE WINDS OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SE OF A LINE
FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF S OF 26N
WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES ERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W
THROUGH GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TO INLAND ACROSS SRN BELIZE NEAR
17N88W. BEHIND AND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...
20-25 KT N-NE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO SWD TO NEAR CURACAO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 65W-71W AND THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NERN VENEZUELA TO ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN US SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W
EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NW OF
THE MAIN FRONT NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS TO 30N76W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY
THESE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N44W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SE WITH AXIS ALONG THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA
TO NEAR 13N38W.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net