[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N45W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W AT THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 4N12W 1N20W 1S30W 1S35W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N2W 1N5W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 4N2W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ONLY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 22N95W...WITH
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM IT. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS BROKEN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N100W. A DEVELOPING GALE IS FORECAST
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEVELOPING
STORM IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH...OR JUST
AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY...STILL IS OUT THERE...NOW ALONG
64W FROM 16N TO 20N. IT MAY END UP JUST BEING A TRANSIENT AND
INSIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITHOUT ANY CONTINUITY INTO THE FUTURE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
15N WEST OF 74W. WEAK AND BROAD AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER AND IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...BEFORE REACHING THE APEX OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 22N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 63W...NEAR A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 23N62W. DISORGANIZED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 33N50W TO 22N56W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE 33N50W 22N56W RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N42W TO 30N48W 28N62W
TO 24N74W NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO THE WESTERN CANARY
ISLANDS TO 25N23W. A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND MARKS THIS FRONT.
A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N22W TO
15N27W 8N30W.

$$
MT



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