[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N45W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W AT THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
4N10W 1N20W 1S32W...AND FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N87W TO 22N94W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS BROKEN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N100W. A DEVELOPING GALE
IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A DEVELOPING STORM IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON
THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ALONG
63W/64W FROM 16N TO 20N. IT MAY END UP JUST BEING A TRANSIENT
AND INSIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITHOUT ANY CONTINUITY INTO THE FUTURE.
BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 74W. WEAK AND BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
AND IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...
BEFORE REACHING THE APEX OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 22N56W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 33N52W TO 22N53W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE 33N52W 22N53W RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N42W TO 30N48W 28N62W
TO 24N74W NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 30N18W TO 28N27W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N23W. A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND MARKS THIS
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N25W
TO 7N30W.

$$
MT



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