[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE ITCZ
NEAR 44W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 37W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BRAZIL FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN
47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHILE ONLY
10 KT IS NOTED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
60'S AND 70'S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INLAND FROM NW LOUISIANA
TO SW TEXAS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF AND
TEXAS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS
WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER NW VENEZUELA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER HAITI NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N69W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W
TO NEAR 28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N18W. AN
AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC W OF 30W HAS
ZONAL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
30W. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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