[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
2N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 2W-8W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N
BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OFFSHORE OF THE ERN US SEABOARD WITH A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR
32N76W AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA W-SW TO
29N88W 25N95W AND INTO NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE FRONT WITH MAINLY OVERCAST LOW
STRATUS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED ON A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N85W. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN GULF WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE W ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE NRN
CARIBBEAN E OF HISPANIOLA AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS WRN HISPANIOLA TO 14N75W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-77W. AN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N49W PROVIDING W-NW UPPER FLOW
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF
70W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF PANAMA IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF
14N AND W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN US SEABOARD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1019 MB
LOW NEAR 32N76W THROUGH DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N AND W OF 70W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N56W SW TO 23N65W. A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N70W ACROSS HAITI AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ALONG WITH
THE SE BAHAMAS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 18N49W COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
43W-55W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N20W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO 7N27W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
28N67W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND AND LARGER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N32W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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