[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 15W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN
47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 31N86W 29N91W 26N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT WHILE 5 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 50 DEGREES N OF THE FRONT. IN CONTRAST TEMPERATURES
OVER S FLORIDA ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 27N84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF
A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND FLORIDA WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH ESPECIALLY OVER E
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W
TO NEAR 25N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEAR E HISPANIOLA
AT 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W. AREA
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN
30W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 15N52W. A LARGE RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AT 17N22W. EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA






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