[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N4W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE IVORY COAST TO
3N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 1S30W 1S40W
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 11W AND
12W...WITHIN 30 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W
AND 35W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN
43W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STILL SUPPORTS THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT
TO VISIT THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN WATERS AT THIS TIME. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH 32N63W...ACROSS THE TURKS ISLANDS TO WESTERN
HAITI...DISSIPATING AND CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
11N82W. THIS COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE 2008-2009 WINTER
SEASON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER EVEN THAN THE TEMPERATURES OF 24 HOURS
AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...PASS THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 17N68W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 23N64W 30N60W BEYOND 32N58W. GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND
A RIDGE ALONG 65W/66W. THE RIDGE REALLY IS NOT MOVING MUCH DUE
TO THE FACT THAT ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ADVANCING WESTWARD AT A SLOW RATE. THE CYCLONIC FLOW NOW
REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...NOW DISSIPATING...CUTS ACROSS
WESTERN HAITI TO 11N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 31N17W TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 29N31W TO 29N43W TO 26N51W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 51W/52W FROM 9N TO 22N. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 45W AND 62W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 36W. THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM INTERIOR AFRICA TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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