[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 6N9W IN LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W TO 1S33W INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N48W 4N40W
2N34W 3N18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT TO VISIT
THE AREA. THE FRONT NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS COLD FRONT
HAS BROUGHT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE 2008-2009 WINTER SEASON. CYCLONIC FLOW
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. GALE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 30N
WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND
A RIDGE ALONG 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AREA JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE CLOUD LINE THAT
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
NICARAGUA MARKS A TROUGH/REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SECOND
CLOUD LINE THAT PASSES FROM HAITI/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA MARKS A SECOND TROUGH/REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AT LEAST A FEW DAYS AGO. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUD LINES/TROUGHS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A SURFACE TROUGH/REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LESS AND LESS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT HAD EARLIER...PASSES THROUGH 33N60W
TO 25N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A DEFINITE CLOUD LINE WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS MARKS THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N25W TO A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N34W TO 28N45W TO 24N58W TO 20N70W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH/CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG
50W FROM 7N TO 20N. THIS TROUGH/CUT-OFF CYCLONE IS MOVING UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES FROM WESTERN ALGERIA AND NORTHERN MAURITANIA TO
9N17W WEST OF GUINEA.

$$
MT



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