[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191354 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...CORRECTED TO CHANGE THE DATE LISTED ABOVE...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
28W TO 42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150/180 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 8W-27W AND FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER
SW AFRICA E OF 4W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-35W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N FROM 37W-40W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE E US SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N88W WEAKENING TO NEAR 24N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
A LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE
GULF TO NEAR 24N91W. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SW OF
THE FRONT BUILDING OVER W TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. ALOFT...WLY
FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A JET STREAM OF WINDS FROM 80 TO
130 KT EXTENDING N OF LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO W CUBA AND
INTO THE W ATLC. BAND OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER STABLE
AIR IS N OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
TEXAS S OF GALVESTON ALONG 27N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA
LEAVING THE N GULF CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER FLOW.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 10N77W.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 60
NM OF A LINE FROM 18N72W TO 10N79W. NE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TO
INLAND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FROM W PANAMA THROUGH COSTA RICA TO S
NICARAGUA AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. THIS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS HAITI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ENTERING THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80
TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF MEXICO WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N80W ALONG 26N72W WEAKENING AND NARROWING TO 80 TO
90 KT NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W GIVING THE
AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net