[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 2N35W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE
SFC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF
ON SUN. ONSHORE WINDS ARE PERMITTING CLOUDS TO BUILD UP ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRES. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING THIS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SW GULF...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
FORMING IN THE DRY AIR MASS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. NE WINDS 20-25 KT COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. A SFC TROUGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ENTERING THE BASIN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EXTENDING TO ISLA BLANQUILLA NEAR 12N65W. BROAD CIRCULATION
SURROUNDING THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 15N AND E OF 68W. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 75W
ON MON. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC
BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
31N62W AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER SOUTH...A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N62W SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
ARE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 59W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB SFC HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
FLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND THE RIDGE. A SWATH OF MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AFFECTING THE TROPICS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
WADDINGTON






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