[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N22W 2N38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 4W-8W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED ON A SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN SOUTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING. DRY AIR IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EXPECT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER.
THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST
WINDS...UP TO 30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN
VENEZUELA IS LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ISOLATED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC.
THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND CONTINUES
SW THROUGH THE MAYAGUANA PASSAGE TO 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE WEST...A SECOND
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 28N70W TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS
FRONT IS DRIER THAN ITS ERN COUNTERPART WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES
TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N39W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SE OF
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N40W IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 21N. IN THE FAR NE ATLC...A 1015
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N15W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND ACROSS SRN MOROCCO THIS EVENING.

$$
HUFFMAN




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