[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N18W 2N30W 2N44W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM  3S-5N BETWEEN 3N-28N.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO S FLORIDA NEAR
WEST PALM BEACH AND INTO THE GULF NEAR NAPLES EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ENTERING MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM WNW OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT IS OVER
THE E US COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF BRINGING DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES FROM
THE ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS AND N MEXICO. WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT ARE IN THE NW GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SRN GULF AND SW ATLC. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND SHOULD EXIT THE GULF LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING N FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 14N77W ACROSS CUBA
COVERING SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW ATLC. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE E COAST OF THE
US ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 30N80W CROSSING FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST
PALM BEACH AND NAPLES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT AND N OF 29N AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SW ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE ANTILLES AND
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 28W-46W
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 35W-48W. HOWEVER...THE
SURFACE IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE E OF 75W WITH A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N37W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND WEAKEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SAT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
WALTON/HUFFMAN



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