[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N24W 4N35W 3N46W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-24W...AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 24W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 27N94W...FORMERLY STATIONARY...HAS
STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST. THE REST OF THE FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY AND EXTENDS SWD FROM 27N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
JUST N OF TAMPICO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SE TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PICK UP
SPEED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED
REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FIRST AND THEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
WED. ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20 KT TO 30 KT TO
FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 14N79W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REACHES THE E CARIBBEAN
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR IS WITHIN THE
RIDGE...BUT DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT S OF JAMAICA AND ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE N COAST OF S AMERICA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STARTING IN THE W ATL...A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE E CARIBBEAN...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 34N40W AND 32N32W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF 30N AND W OF 45W. THIS AREA OF
STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE E AS THE PAIR OF HIGHS
MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION.

$$
CW/MH


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