[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N11W 2N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W
AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 6W AND 26W...AND SOUTH OF 8N WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
THE THE AREA IN MEXICO THAT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTH OF 28N82W 28N90W 24N99W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. THE SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING FROM JUST NORTH OF CUBA
TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N754W 13N76W 9N76W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 40W...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINTS ARE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 29N50W
25N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 21N TO 26N.
AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 78W. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N46W 29N35W
BEYOND 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N25W.

$$
MT





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