[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042308
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N24W 3N34W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY ENTERED THE NW WATERS AS LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SUGGEST ITS PRESENCE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.  DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NOTED
FARTHER NE POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT SE OR POSSIBLY STALL
OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT AND MON AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
SUPPORT...BENEATH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY MON
NIGHT AND TUE...THE FRONT WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY AN EWD
MOVING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CONUS AND WILL THEN MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE FLOW AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN...
A AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...
EXTENDING NW FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR PANAMA...AND TROUGHING IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR AS REVEALED ON WV IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE RIDGE AND IN THE CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS USUAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS...BENEATH THE CAP...WHICH ARE
BEING DRIVEN W BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. THE SHALLOW
CLOUDINESS HAS SOME STRUCTURE BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG 76W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO FIZZLE...OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY WLY AND QUITE STRONG ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN...THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES. THIS FLOW IS SPREADING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS N OF 22N W OF 45W. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT A DEVELOPING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS IS PROVIDING LIFT
TRIGGERING HIGHLY SHEARED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 67W-72W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N49W TO
28N53W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E
OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
CENTER NEAR 34N25W AND A 1022 MB NEAR 29N72W DOMINATE THE SFC
PATTERN.

$$
CANGIALOSI





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net