[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 4N40W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WITH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE N GULF. A 100-KT
UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-93W. AT THE SAME TIME...RETURN FLOW
AROUND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N73W IS
BRINGING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF
REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SW GULF IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE S
GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN NRN GUYANA NEAR 6N59W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WNW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GREATER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-70W. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
ACROSS THE W ATLC...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN THE
BASE OF UPPER TROUGHING WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING INHIBITED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N73W. FARTHER TO THE E...A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 25N60W TO
31N41W...AND AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT BEYOND 31N41W TO THE NE.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 16N50W FROM A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N25W IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
N OF 21N AND E OF 26W...THOUGH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED...WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN




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