[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 4N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 16W-25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE
FROM 5N39W TO 9N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
GULF N OF 23N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS ALSO
ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA BETWEEN 23N AND 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE
W ATLC NEAR 32N70W GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
RETURN FLOW. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS
THE GULF COAST SHORE N OF 30N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70. IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF
65W AND ALSO OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N70W. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 38W-55W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W
TO 24N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W. A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N51W
TO 23N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 48W-77W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS
ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR 50W.
UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. E
OF THE FRONT IN THE ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N28W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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