[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280734 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N13W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 18W EXTENDING TO 1S34W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...S TO SW SURFACE WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE CONUS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT. THIS DEEP
LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
GULF...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE W GULF. ALSO... RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-17N E OF
64W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO 29N53W TO
32N42W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. ALSO...ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N40W. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND
BE LOCATED NEAR 28N31W AS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 01/0000 UTC.
FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 16N E OF 24W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N
BETWEEN 10W-16W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1017
MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N18W.
THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 01/0000 UTC.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 16W-20W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 57W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

$$
COHEN


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